***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 -1.3 -1.0 0.9 60.6 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.2 -1.0 1.0 61.9 59.4 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 0.8 60.6 58.9 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -5.4 -5.3 -3.5 0.6 57.6 57.1 -7.8 -6.1 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.6 -3.0 -3.5 0.2 52.5 53.4 -4.5 -3.2 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -5.6 -5.4 -7.0 -1.7 31.0 35.7 -5.2 -4.0 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.3 -1.0 0.9 60.8 58.6 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -6.6 -8.1 -5.3 -0.9 39.9 44.3 -8.7 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.7 0.3 53.7 54.1 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.3 -4.3 -0.4 46.0 48.3 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -4.9 -3.5 -4.1 -0.3 46.1 49.2 -4.7 -3.2 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -5.8 -5.0 -4.7 -0.9 39.2 44.5 -5.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -4.9 -5.6 -1.3 35.0 40.3 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -2.1 -2.9 0.0 50.6 50.8 -3.5 -2.2 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -1.5 -2.6 1.4 65.2 63.3 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -2.0 -3.1 -4.8 -0.6 42.7 46.4 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -3.0 -2.4 -0.9 1.1 63.1 60.1 -5.1 -3.5 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -4.2 -5.5 -5.0 -0.6 43.0 45.5 -6.4 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -2.0 -1.1 0.9 61.9 59.5 -4.4 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -10.2 -9.5 -7.0 -1.2 36.7 40.5 -9.9 -8.0 -6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.0 -1.7 0.7 58.3 57.4 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 -2.9 -2.2 -0.8 1.2 64.2 60.8 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -2.2 -1.4 0.7 59.8 57.9 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -2.6 -3.1 -3.2 0.0 50.4 51.1 -4.4 -3.2 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.0 -2.7 0.6 56.8 56.2 -3.6 -2.5 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -5.0 -4.9 -5.7 -1.6 31.7 37.4 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 0.7 57.8 56.8 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -3.1 -3.3 0.8 58.8 58.3 -5.3 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -4.4 -6.0 -5.9 -1.0 39.0 42.4 -6.5 -5.0 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -1.8 -1.0 0.9 61.4 59.3 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------