***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 -1.1 -1.7 0.8 57.0 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.5 -1.8 0.8 57.1 57.2 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -0.6 -1.8 0.7 56.7 56.6 -2.9 -1.2 0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -6.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.7 57.1 57.0 -8.7 -6.7 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.8 -3.8 0.3 53.3 54.3 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -6.4 -5.3 -6.7 -0.9 40.0 44.8 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.3 -1.8 0.8 56.8 56.9 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -10.2 -8.5 -5.3 -0.4 46.1 49.9 -9.8 -8.1 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.0 -3.2 0.4 53.9 54.6 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 -4.9 -2.9 -4.5 0.0 50.1 52.0 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -3.2 -4.3 -0.1 48.6 51.6 -4.9 -3.1 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -5.8 -4.2 -4.7 -0.6 43.8 49.0 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -4.0 -5.4 -0.8 40.5 46.4 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.0 -3.3 0.2 52.4 53.4 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 -1.2 -2.0 -3.3 1.2 62.2 60.9 -5.2 -3.3 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -2.8 -4.9 -0.4 45.9 49.9 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -2.5 -1.7 0.9 58.0 58.2 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -6.5 -4.6 -5.1 -0.1 49.2 50.9 -6.2 -4.5 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.4 -1.8 0.8 57.3 57.3 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -10.4 -8.1 -6.7 -0.3 47.0 49.8 -10.0 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -4.7 -2.0 -2.3 0.6 55.8 55.9 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -2.4 -1.5 1.1 59.5 59.3 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.3 -2.0 0.7 56.7 56.8 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -2.9 -3.5 0.2 52.1 53.2 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -2.5 -3.3 0.7 56.6 56.7 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -4.4 -5.4 -1.1 37.4 44.5 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.2 -2.5 0.7 56.8 56.7 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -3.4 -3.4 -3.8 0.7 57.3 57.3 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -7.7 -5.8 -5.9 -0.3 46.7 49.2 -7.3 -5.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.2 -1.7 0.8 57.1 57.0 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------