***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 -2.5 -1.3 0.6 56.5 55.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -2.9 -1.3 0.7 56.9 56.5 -5.8 -3.7 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.6 0.4 54.7 54.4 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -6.1 -6.0 -3.5 0.7 58.2 56.9 -8.5 -6.8 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -3.0 -3.3 -3.4 0.4 54.5 54.0 -5.4 -3.7 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -4.1 -5.0 -5.9 -0.2 47.7 48.6 -6.5 -4.8 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -2.7 -2.6 -1.3 0.7 56.9 56.4 -5.4 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -8.0 -8.6 -4.8 0.0 50.1 50.6 -10.3 -8.6 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.3 -2.9 0.3 53.2 53.1 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -3.1 -4.2 0.1 51.3 51.4 -4.7 -3.2 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -3.4 -3.8 0.2 52.3 52.3 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.8 -4.3 -4.1 0.0 50.0 50.6 -5.8 -4.3 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 -3.2 -3.9 -4.6 -0.1 49.1 49.7 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -2.2 -3.1 0.0 50.1 51.1 -3.8 -2.2 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -1.9 -3.0 1.0 61.1 59.7 -4.4 -2.9 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.6 -4.2 0.2 51.8 51.9 -4.3 -2.8 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -2.9 -2.7 -1.2 0.8 57.3 56.9 -5.4 -3.5 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -4.6 -5.2 -4.8 0.0 49.8 50.2 -6.8 -5.2 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 -2.6 -2.6 -1.4 0.6 56.1 55.9 -5.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -8.0 -8.7 -6.4 0.0 49.9 50.2 -10.6 -8.7 -7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -2.6 -2.0 0.4 54.3 53.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -3.0 -2.8 -1.2 0.7 57.2 56.8 -5.6 -3.6 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.9 -1.8 0.4 54.0 54.2 -5.1 -3.3 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -3.3 -3.3 0.1 50.7 51.2 -5.0 -3.4 -1.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -2.7 -2.8 0.7 57.4 56.3 -5.1 -3.4 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 -3.2 -3.8 -4.5 -0.1 49.0 49.4 -5.3 -3.7 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -2.4 -2.0 0.6 56.9 56.0 -5.4 -3.2 -1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 0.8 58.6 57.4 -5.7 -4.3 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.9 -5.7 -5.5 -0.1 49.0 49.4 -7.4 -5.7 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -2.5 -2.4 -1.3 0.6 56.5 56.0 -5.2 -3.2 -1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------