***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 3.6 4.6 0.4 54.0 52.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.8 4.6 0.7 57.5 55.1 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.8 4.8 0.3 53.3 52.0 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.5 3.1 0.5 55.3 53.7 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.3 3.3 0.0 49.6 49.3 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.1 0.8 -1.3 36.3 39.2 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.4 4.3 0.6 56.4 54.2 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.5 -1.5 1.7 -1.0 39.5 41.8 -2.1 -0.5 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.1 3.8 -0.1 48.5 48.5 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.6 2.6 -0.7 43.0 44.4 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.0 2.8 -0.5 44.4 45.5 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.9 2.3 -1.0 39.1 41.5 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.2 2.7 1.4 -1.5 34.4 37.8 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.7 4.0 -0.3 47.4 47.8 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.4 3.7 1.1 61.6 58.9 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.1 2.2 -0.8 41.6 43.3 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.7 4.5 0.9 59.7 56.8 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.2 2.1 -0.9 40.6 42.7 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 4.8 0.6 56.7 54.6 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -1.4 35.0 38.7 0.3 2.0 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.8 4.4 0.1 51.4 50.7 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.5 4.8 1.0 60.1 57.1 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.9 4.9 0.4 54.1 52.7 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.8 3.7 -0.4 46.2 46.9 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.7 3.3 0.3 53.2 51.9 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.4 2.6 0.9 -1.8 30.4 34.7 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.3 3.8 0.2 52.4 51.3 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.3 3.3 0.5 55.7 54.2 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.1 1.2 1.1 -1.2 37.7 40.6 0.6 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.7 4.6 0.6 56.0 54.0 1.5 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------