***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 3.6 5.0 0.6 58.7 56.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.4 5.0 0.9 62.0 60.1 2.3 3.5 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.3 5.3 0.6 58.6 56.9 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.2 0.4 3.2 0.6 59.4 57.5 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.7 3.6 0.2 53.1 52.4 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.2 1.2 -1.0 35.3 38.1 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.9 4.8 0.8 60.5 58.8 1.8 3.2 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.4 -1.5 2.2 -0.7 40.1 42.3 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.5 4.3 0.3 53.9 53.1 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.3 3.1 -0.3 45.5 46.6 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.6 3.3 -0.2 47.0 47.6 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.3 2.7 -0.7 39.8 42.0 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.0 -1.1 33.8 37.0 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.4 4.6 0.1 51.3 51.4 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.5 5.7 4.0 1.3 68.4 65.2 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.6 2.6 -0.5 42.8 44.2 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.2 4.9 1.1 64.0 62.0 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.6 2.7 2.5 -0.6 41.7 43.6 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.7 5.3 0.9 61.7 59.7 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 0.2 0.6 0.3 -1.1 34.0 37.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 4.9 0.5 56.9 55.4 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 5.2 5.0 5.3 1.2 65.3 63.0 2.5 3.9 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.6 5.4 0.7 59.7 58.0 2.6 3.9 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.4 4.2 0.0 49.6 49.9 4.0 5.4 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.1 3.5 0.5 56.7 55.2 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.1 1.4 -1.4 28.4 32.7 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.6 4.1 0.4 55.9 54.7 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.8 3.6 0.7 60.2 58.3 3.5 4.9 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.4 1.6 -0.8 38.4 41.0 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.2 5.1 0.8 60.7 58.9 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------