***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 9.0 14.0 140.3 75.4 62.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.0 9.7 13.5 141.5 75.7 63.0 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 10.4 12.3 14.4 140.2 75.4 61.0 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.0 16.2 13.8 124.9 71.2 60.4 4.8 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.5 11.3 14.1 125.1 71.2 57.4 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.7 8.2 13.7 123.5 70.7 59.7 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.2 8.1 13.6 143.3 76.2 63.6 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.0 16.0 125.8 71.4 60.2 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.7 10.2 16.0 136.7 74.5 60.6 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.2 11.2 16.7 131.1 72.9 60.0 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.4 10.1 14.1 128.4 72.2 60.5 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.5 9.0 14.4 132.2 73.2 62.3 2.7 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.6 8.3 14.0 127.7 72.0 60.2 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.5 14.6 17.4 130.2 72.7 58.1 3.5 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.1 9.1 11.5 105.7 65.1 54.7 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.5 8.3 13.8 127.9 72.2 61.7 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.4 7.5 12.4 135.1 74.1 61.9 1.6 3.2 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.7 11.0 19.3 133.6 73.7 61.0 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.7 10.8 13.7 138.9 75.1 61.9 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.1 22.0 128.1 72.1 61.9 3.0 5.0 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.1 11.8 15.0 139.1 75.2 60.5 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 9.0 9.8 12.4 128.6 72.3 60.5 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 9.6 10.8 14.6 134.9 74.0 60.0 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 13.7 17.2 133.8 73.8 59.3 2.5 5.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 9.0 11.0 16.0 143.4 76.2 63.3 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.0 5.0 13.0 113.1 67.3 55.9 1.8 3.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.5 9.3 15.7 148.0 77.3 64.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.2 8.2 12.2 112.0 67.1 56.9 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 16.0 17.8 21.0 133.1 73.6 61.6 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.0 9.8 13.8 142.9 76.1 63.1 1.5 3.6 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------