***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 11.3 13.0 127.7 72.1 58.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 11.8 13.2 135.8 74.3 58.7 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 14.3 12.6 122.4 70.5 57.5 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.5 12.8 113.0 67.4 54.0 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.2 13.0 112.6 67.1 54.0 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.9 11.4 11.6 101.5 62.6 52.7 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 12.4 13.8 142.4 75.9 59.4 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 15.2 14.3 113.8 67.5 54.6 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.7 13.5 115.4 68.1 55.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.2 14.5 116.9 68.6 55.9 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.4 10.3 12.1 108.5 65.6 53.4 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.6 11.8 107.4 65.1 53.0 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.3 11.2 11.7 104.3 63.8 53.1 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 19.2 15.0 124.5 71.1 59.1 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.3 11.0 105.8 65.8 52.6 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.4 11.6 105.0 64.3 53.0 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 9.7 11.4 13.0 138.1 74.9 59.1 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 13.0 16.8 123.6 70.7 58.1 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.7 12.5 12.8 129.5 72.7 58.1 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 14.7 21.2 125.9 71.5 57.2 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.2 11.4 12.9 115.7 68.4 56.0 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.2 11.7 12.5 130.0 72.9 58.5 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 11.2 12.9 124.0 71.1 57.8 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 15.6 14.6 123.1 70.6 58.4 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.2 15.6 14.9 128.0 72.1 58.3 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.8 11.6 96.6 61.2 51.4 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.6 14.6 14.7 133.6 73.7 59.3 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.4 11.3 105.0 65.0 52.6 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 20.5 18.6 126.4 71.6 58.4 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.4 12.3 13.1 132.9 73.5 58.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------