***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 5.4 12.2 150.2 77.8 64.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.8 12.0 146.3 76.7 63.7 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 8.3 10.0 12.2 147.2 77.0 63.1 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 11.9 13.0 12.6 137.1 74.6 61.6 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.6 12.9 13.0 136.1 74.3 61.1 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.9 11.1 111.3 67.2 57.7 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 5.8 6.7 11.8 144.4 76.3 63.4 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 18.2 20.8 14.0 134.0 73.8 61.3 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.5 8.5 13.1 135.9 74.3 60.8 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 9.5 11.0 14.1 135.1 74.1 61.5 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 9.3 10.1 12.4 132.7 73.5 60.8 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.8 10.2 12.0 129.4 72.7 60.4 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.4 11.8 119.1 69.6 58.9 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 9.7 11.3 14.4 139.9 75.3 62.2 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.9 10.1 10.9 128.0 72.3 58.8 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 9.1 9.4 11.7 126.7 71.8 60.1 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 6.0 7.0 11.6 145.9 76.6 63.3 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 9.6 11.0 15.9 138.3 75.0 62.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.8 12.2 147.2 77.0 63.9 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 9.6 11.8 19.4 140.3 75.4 62.5 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 8.0 9.0 12.6 142.3 75.9 62.1 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.5 6.5 11.9 144.2 76.3 63.4 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.3 6.5 12.7 147.4 77.0 63.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.5 12.0 14.1 141.1 75.6 61.9 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 10.0 11.9 14.0 150.2 77.7 64.9 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.1 12.1 118.5 69.7 59.1 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 7.7 9.0 13.4 150.0 77.7 65.0 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.9 11.2 127.6 72.1 59.2 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.6 17.1 17.3 139.1 75.1 62.3 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 4.7 5.4 12.1 147.5 77.0 63.9 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------