***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 44.1 50.5 144.3 81.3 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 34.3 42.3 48.8 143.5 81.1 70.8 14.7 21.7 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 43.2 53.9 50.3 141.8 80.7 70.4 19.5 28.6 39.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 48.8 51.8 49.7 126.2 73.0 64.8 21.6 32.2 44.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 46.5 50.5 52.5 130.1 75.1 66.7 22.9 32.0 42.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 39.1 37.5 46.3 114.2 66.6 60.3 17.8 26.5 36.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 32.0 40.4 49.5 146.2 81.8 71.6 14.3 20.9 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 64.6 69.8 57.5 128.2 74.3 67.2 32.3 45.1 60.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 37.6 42.5 56.5 137.8 78.7 70.2 17.4 24.7 33.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 45.5 52.6 60.0 135.8 78.1 70.2 19.2 28.8 40.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 38.6 42.9 50.7 128.3 74.2 66.7 18.3 26.5 36.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 38.9 41.2 49.2 124.1 72.1 65.3 15.6 24.5 35.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 41.9 44.0 50.2 123.1 71.8 65.1 18.7 28.0 39.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 56.4 66.1 61.0 140.1 80.7 71.3 28.8 39.0 50.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 32.9 33.0 38.1 101.9 59.1 52.5 16.7 26.4 38.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 36.7 39.2 48.3 123.5 71.9 64.9 16.6 24.8 34.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 32.2 38.2 46.6 139.8 79.4 70.0 13.5 20.2 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 45.4 54.1 67.7 139.9 80.3 72.2 18.4 27.7 39.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 37.6 45.2 49.0 141.5 80.7 70.3 17.6 25.0 33.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 47.8 53.7 78.1 133.6 77.2 69.4 19.7 29.7 42.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 39.2 45.7 52.5 138.4 79.0 69.5 20.0 27.5 36.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 36.3 41.4 46.8 134.7 77.7 68.5 15.3 22.7 31.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 35.9 43.6 51.5 140.4 80.6 70.3 16.1 23.4 32.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 49.6 57.6 59.6 140.3 80.4 71.5 24.8 33.9 44.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 43.6 53.8 58.1 146.2 81.8 72.2 21.3 29.6 39.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.4 30.5 46.4 107.9 62.6 57.6 14.9 22.9 32.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 38.2 49.6 57.1 150.5 83.7 73.4 17.6 25.2 34.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 28.0 32.3 42.6 111.5 64.7 57.9 14.9 23.0 33.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 70.0 82.9 73.4 140.4 80.4 72.5 30.1 43.9 60.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 33.7 42.0 49.4 144.8 81.6 71.0 15.3 22.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------