***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 -5.3 -5.5 -6.4 -3.7 18.5 21.0 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 -6.6 -6.4 -5.4 -2.8 25.8 27.7 -5.4 -3.3 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 -4.5 -4.7 -5.8 -3.3 20.4 23.4 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 -10.1 -12.4 -9.9 -5.3 7.9 12.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 -6.8 -8.6 -9.4 -5.3 9.1 13.0 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 -8.4 -10.6 -12.7 -6.2 6.2 9.5 -6.4 -4.7 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 -6.8 -6.5 -5.7 -3.0 23.9 25.6 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 -10.0 -11.0 -10.8 -4.8 12.7 16.5 -8.8 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 -6.5 -8.2 -9.5 -5.0 11.1 15.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 -6.9 -8.2 -10.0 -4.6 13.5 17.7 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 -7.4 -9.1 -10.2 -5.3 10.8 14.7 -5.7 -3.8 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 -8.2 -9.8 -10.9 -5.5 9.8 13.5 -6.5 -4.7 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 -8.4 -10.4 -11.1 -5.8 8.8 12.5 -6.3 -4.4 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 -5.9 -6.4 -7.8 -3.7 20.1 24.1 -4.6 -2.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 -7.1 -9.7 -9.4 -5.8 6.4 10.5 -5.1 -3.2 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 -6.6 -8.6 -11.3 -6.0 7.8 11.5 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -6.4 -6.2 -5.2 -2.5 27.8 29.5 -5.5 -3.4 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 78 22 0 100 -9.3 -10.3 -9.5 -4.1 16.3 20.6 -7.7 -5.6 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -6.0 -6.0 -5.4 -2.6 26.1 28.1 -5.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 -13.0 -14.7 -11.1 -4.8 11.7 16.0 -11.0 -8.9 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 -6.4 -7.4 -7.6 -4.5 13.4 17.6 -4.8 -3.1 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -6.2 -6.2 -4.9 -2.3 29.0 30.7 -5.7 -3.6 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 -6.2 -6.2 -5.6 -2.6 25.8 28.0 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 -6.2 -6.6 -7.6 -3.5 21.0 24.6 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 -6.7 -8.4 -8.2 -5.0 9.7 13.1 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -7.9 -10.2 -11.7 -6.4 5.5 8.3 -5.7 -4.0 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 -6.9 -7.6 -7.2 -4.2 16.3 19.0 -5.0 -2.9 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 -8.1 -10.0 -10.1 -5.6 8.3 12.7 -6.3 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 -8.6 -9.7 -10.8 -4.4 14.7 19.4 -7.2 -5.4 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 -6.7 -6.6 -5.6 -3.0 23.4 25.3 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------