***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 -3.7 -3.5 -4.5 -1.9 30.5 37.8 -3.3 -2.0 -0.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -5.2 -4.8 -4.2 -1.5 34.0 41.2 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 -2.7 -2.4 -4.3 -1.7 31.1 38.0 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -8.2 -8.0 -7.0 -1.8 30.9 35.3 -7.8 -6.1 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -6.2 -1.6 33.8 38.2 -4.5 -3.2 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -4.9 -8.1 -1.2 37.4 40.6 -5.2 -4.0 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -5.3 -5.0 -4.3 -1.6 33.0 40.6 -5.0 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -9.1 -8.4 -7.7 -1.4 36.8 40.2 -8.7 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -3.8 -6.3 -1.7 31.7 36.7 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -4.6 -4.1 -7.2 -1.4 35.5 39.2 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -5.0 -4.5 -6.9 -1.5 34.9 38.7 -4.7 -3.2 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -5.9 -5.3 -7.3 -1.6 35.2 39.1 -5.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -5.4 -4.5 -7.0 -1.0 40.0 42.6 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -3.6 -6.2 -1.8 31.7 36.7 -3.5 -2.2 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -4.7 -4.7 -6.2 -1.9 28.9 33.3 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 -4.1 -3.5 -7.2 -1.4 36.8 40.1 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 -2.9 -4.7 -3.9 -1.2 36.9 43.4 -5.1 -3.5 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -4.3 -6.0 -7.3 -1.3 36.9 40.3 -6.4 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -4.3 -1.5 33.0 40.4 -4.4 -3.0 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -10.3 -8.9 -7.8 -0.8 41.8 43.9 -9.9 -8.0 -6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -4.2 -5.0 -1.8 31.3 37.3 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -5.1 -4.6 -4.0 -1.3 35.5 42.3 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -4.6 -4.5 -4.8 -1.8 30.3 37.8 -4.3 -2.9 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -4.7 -4.4 -6.1 -1.5 33.4 38.3 -4.4 -3.2 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -4.0 -3.6 -5.2 -1.6 33.1 38.2 -3.6 -2.5 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -4.6 -7.3 -1.5 35.7 39.5 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -4.6 -4.1 -4.6 -1.6 33.6 39.6 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -5.6 -5.4 -6.8 -1.7 32.0 36.0 -5.3 -3.8 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -4.4 -6.0 -7.9 -1.2 38.7 41.4 -6.5 -5.0 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -4.8 -4.6 -4.4 -1.7 31.6 39.3 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------