***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -4.7 -1.9 24.0 30.4 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -4.4 -1.6 27.2 33.4 -4.7 -3.4 -2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 -4.5 -1.8 24.7 30.7 -2.2 -1.1 -0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -8.2 -8.7 -7.7 -2.3 19.3 24.8 -7.6 -6.4 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 -5.1 -5.4 -7.2 -2.2 20.3 25.8 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 -6.1 -6.5 -9.3 -2.3 19.0 24.1 -5.5 -4.4 -3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -4.5 -1.8 25.6 32.0 -4.5 -3.2 -2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -9.4 -9.5 -8.6 -1.9 23.3 28.5 -8.8 -7.8 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 -4.2 -4.6 -6.9 -2.2 20.3 26.1 -3.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -7.9 -1.9 23.1 28.4 -4.2 -3.2 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 -5.2 -5.5 -7.9 -2.2 21.5 26.6 -4.6 -3.4 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 -5.8 -6.0 -8.5 -2.3 20.7 26.0 -5.2 -4.1 -3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -5.3 -5.6 -8.3 -2.1 22.6 27.6 -4.8 -3.7 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -3.8 -4.0 -6.5 -1.9 23.3 28.7 -3.3 -2.3 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 -4.9 -5.5 -6.9 -2.4 17.5 23.2 -4.2 -3.1 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 -4.3 -4.6 -8.4 -2.2 20.7 26.0 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -5.0 -4.9 -4.1 -1.5 28.8 34.5 -4.6 -3.4 -2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 -6.6 -6.7 -8.1 -1.7 24.8 30.1 -6.1 -5.1 -4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -4.6 -4.7 -4.4 -1.6 27.3 33.4 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -10.1 -10.0 -8.8 -1.5 27.1 32.0 -9.6 -8.3 -7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 -4.5 -4.7 -5.5 -2.0 21.9 27.7 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 -5.0 -5.0 -4.2 -1.5 28.5 34.4 -4.6 -3.5 -2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -4.7 -4.7 -1.6 26.3 32.2 -4.2 -3.1 -2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 -4.6 -4.8 -6.5 -1.7 24.8 29.9 -4.2 -3.2 -2.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -6.0 -2.1 21.3 26.8 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 -5.4 -5.7 -8.8 -2.5 18.0 22.9 -4.6 -3.6 -2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -4.7 -4.8 -5.1 -1.9 24.3 30.2 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 -5.8 -6.2 -7.6 -2.3 19.6 25.2 -5.2 -4.2 -3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -6.9 -6.9 -8.6 -1.7 25.2 30.2 -6.4 -5.4 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 -4.6 -4.9 -4.5 -1.8 25.3 32.0 -4.3 -3.0 -1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------