***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 0.6 0.5 0.6 -3.3 20.0 22.3 2.3 4.3 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 -0.4 -0.1 1.4 -2.8 25.6 27.2 0.9 3.1 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 0.7 0.6 1.4 -3.2 22.3 24.5 2.2 4.4 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 -3.6 -4.8 -2.9 -4.6 11.5 14.2 -1.5 0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 -0.1 -2.1 -1.9 -4.9 8.3 11.0 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 -0.3 -3.1 -3.2 -5.5 4.8 7.3 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 -0.8 -0.7 1.0 -2.9 24.1 25.7 0.6 2.7 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 -3.4 -5.1 -2.0 -5.0 7.4 10.4 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 0.2 -1.5 -0.7 -4.6 10.1 12.8 2.7 4.9 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 -0.2 -1.8 -1.2 -4.7 10.0 13.0 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 0.0 -2.0 -1.5 -5.0 8.5 11.2 2.3 4.3 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 0.2 -2.3 -2.1 -5.2 6.5 9.2 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 -0.4 -2.9 -1.9 -5.5 6.5 8.9 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.3 -3.5 20.4 22.9 2.2 4.6 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 -0.6 -2.2 -1.9 -5.0 11.4 14.6 1.7 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 0.2 -2.1 -2.4 -5.3 6.8 9.3 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 1.3 -2.6 25.9 27.5 0.6 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -1.2 -2.3 -1.1 -4.6 11.0 14.2 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 -0.1 0.2 1.6 -2.7 26.2 27.8 1.2 3.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -2.6 -4.8 -2.8 -5.2 6.1 9.5 -0.7 0.9 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 0.0 -0.9 0.4 -4.2 13.5 16.1 2.3 4.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -0.3 0.0 1.8 -2.5 26.9 28.6 0.9 3.1 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 -0.3 0.1 1.8 -2.6 26.7 28.4 1.0 3.2 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 1.0 0.4 0.9 -3.7 17.5 20.3 3.0 5.3 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 -0.6 -1.5 -0.7 -4.1 13.1 15.5 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -6.1 2.4 4.5 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 0.2 -0.3 0.1 -3.6 16.7 19.0 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 -0.4 -2.2 -2.4 -5.0 10.7 13.6 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 -1.7 -3.4 -1.7 -4.7 9.5 12.9 0.3 2.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 -0.5 -0.4 1.3 -2.9 24.3 26.1 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------