***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.0 2.1 2.3 -1.9 28.8 37.3 2.5 4.0 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.3 2.5 -1.6 31.9 40.2 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.4 2.8 -1.9 29.8 38.0 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -3.0 -2.6 -0.3 -1.9 29.3 34.4 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.4 1.2 -1.8 29.7 35.8 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.0 0.8 -1.3 35.3 39.7 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.6 1.0 2.4 -1.6 31.9 40.1 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -2.4 0.9 -1.8 30.2 36.1 -2.1 -0.5 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.0 2.1 -1.9 29.7 36.3 3.4 5.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.3 1.5 -1.9 30.6 36.9 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.3 2.4 1.4 -1.9 29.9 35.9 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.7 2.9 1.1 -1.8 29.9 35.6 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.1 2.5 1.4 -1.7 32.2 37.5 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.8 -1.8 31.8 38.3 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 0.9 1.2 0.5 -2.1 28.0 32.7 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.0 1.1 -1.8 31.4 36.9 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.3 2.7 -1.3 34.6 41.8 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.3 1.4 1.5 -1.8 31.8 38.2 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 1.6 2.7 -1.7 31.5 39.9 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -1.8 31.0 37.2 0.3 2.0 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.4 2.7 2.8 -1.7 30.8 37.9 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.9 -1.4 34.0 41.1 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.3 1.7 2.8 -1.7 31.3 39.2 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.1 2.7 -1.7 32.1 38.8 3.2 5.2 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.4 -1.8 29.8 36.4 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 2.6 0.6 -1.7 30.0 35.1 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.9 2.1 2.1 -1.7 30.3 37.9 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.5 1.8 0.3 -2.0 29.5 34.4 2.3 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.3 0.4 0.9 -1.8 30.7 37.4 0.6 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.0 1.2 2.4 -1.8 30.0 38.9 1.5 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------