***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 0.9 2.0 2.8 -1.4 35.4 39.4 1.7 3.6 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.8 2.6 -1.6 34.4 39.4 1.6 3.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.7 2.7 3.2 -1.4 35.8 39.5 2.3 4.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -2.9 -2.2 0.0 -1.6 34.1 37.0 -2.4 -0.4 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.8 1.2 -1.5 34.9 37.5 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.6 0.8 -1.3 36.4 39.6 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 0.6 1.3 2.7 -1.5 34.8 39.4 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.4 -2.7 1.2 -1.3 36.2 39.6 -3.0 -1.5 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.4 2.3 -1.4 36.4 38.8 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.0 2.9 1.8 -1.3 36.7 39.6 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.2 2.9 1.2 -1.6 34.1 37.1 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.8 1.3 -1.4 34.6 38.2 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.0 1.0 -1.4 35.1 38.8 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.4 2.9 -1.3 37.4 40.2 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.1 1.9 0.6 -1.6 34.2 37.0 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.3 0.9 -1.5 34.1 37.4 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.9 -1.4 35.4 39.6 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.1 -1.1 38.6 41.3 1.7 3.2 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.9 1.8 2.8 -1.6 34.6 39.5 1.6 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.8 0.5 0.6 -0.9 40.0 43.3 -0.3 1.6 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.3 2.8 -1.3 36.5 39.1 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.9 -1.5 34.8 39.1 1.9 3.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.0 3.2 -1.5 35.6 39.7 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.3 2.8 -1.2 37.8 40.3 2.7 4.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.1 2.1 1.4 -1.3 36.1 38.9 1.8 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.0 1.0 -1.3 35.6 39.3 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.5 2.4 -1.3 36.5 39.8 2.1 4.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.6 0.3 -1.7 33.8 36.8 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.7 0.4 1.6 -1.0 39.3 42.2 -0.3 1.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.7 1.5 2.5 -1.6 34.3 39.3 1.3 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------