***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.0 3.2 3.8 -0.8 42.1 44.4 2.0 4.2 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.7 3.9 -0.8 42.8 45.3 2.5 4.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.6 4.5 4.2 -0.9 41.5 44.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -3.2 -1.8 1.0 -1.1 39.6 42.9 -2.6 -0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.9 2.2 -1.1 39.6 43.1 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.6 3.3 1.5 -1.0 40.8 44.6 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.2 3.9 -0.7 43.0 45.5 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -2.5 1.9 -1.0 40.3 44.3 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.8 3.1 -1.0 40.7 43.8 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.7 2.5 -1.0 41.0 44.5 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 4.3 2.1 -1.2 38.9 42.7 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.4 2.1 -1.2 38.6 42.8 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.8 4.2 1.7 -1.1 39.4 43.5 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.5 3.8 -0.9 42.1 45.0 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.0 1.7 -1.0 40.9 43.5 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.9 4.4 1.8 -1.2 38.9 42.9 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.7 4.2 -0.6 44.6 46.6 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.9 2.8 -0.9 41.8 45.3 3.1 4.6 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.8 4.0 -0.8 42.4 44.9 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.4 1.2 1.0 -0.8 42.5 46.9 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.9 4.7 3.7 -0.9 41.4 44.2 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.2 4.3 -0.6 44.0 46.0 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.3 4.4 -0.9 42.0 44.5 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.2 3.7 -0.9 41.6 44.6 4.1 6.2 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.7 3.3 2.3 -0.9 41.8 44.2 2.4 4.2 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.8 1.5 -1.1 38.1 42.7 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.6 3.7 3.3 -0.8 42.4 44.6 2.5 4.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.7 1.3 -1.2 39.5 42.9 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -0.2 1.4 2.2 -0.9 41.6 45.6 0.5 2.3 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.4 3.7 -0.9 42.1 44.6 2.2 4.3 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------