***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.4 -1.9 24.5 30.4 2.9 4.0 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.1 1.8 2.6 -1.7 27.6 33.7 2.3 3.5 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.0 2.8 2.9 -1.9 25.2 30.9 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -2.4 -2.5 -0.6 -2.3 19.7 23.7 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.4 2.1 0.7 -2.3 18.3 22.7 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.2 2.0 0.0 -2.3 18.0 23.8 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.5 1.3 2.5 -1.7 27.1 33.0 1.8 3.2 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -2.7 -3.1 0.5 -2.3 17.1 22.8 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 3.1 2.9 1.7 -2.2 19.7 24.6 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.3 1.1 -2.2 19.2 24.6 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 2.6 2.3 0.8 -2.4 17.7 22.5 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 3.0 2.5 0.6 -2.4 16.3 21.8 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.6 2.1 0.5 -2.4 17.2 22.7 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.0 3.0 2.7 -1.9 24.4 29.7 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.9 1.5 0.2 -2.4 20.4 24.6 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 3.0 2.6 0.3 -2.4 17.3 22.3 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.7 1.7 2.8 -1.5 29.3 34.4 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 1.5 1.4 1.3 -2.1 20.3 26.2 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.4 2.0 2.8 -1.7 27.5 33.6 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -2.2 17.2 23.9 0.5 1.6 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.8 2.7 2.4 -2.0 22.0 27.0 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.2 2.2 3.0 -1.5 28.9 34.2 2.5 3.9 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.3 2.1 3.1 -1.7 27.4 33.0 2.6 3.9 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.2 3.2 2.5 -1.9 23.5 28.9 4.0 5.4 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 1.8 1.7 1.1 -2.0 22.0 26.9 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 2.6 1.9 -0.1 -2.5 13.7 19.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.0 -1.9 23.9 29.6 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.4 2.1 -0.2 -2.4 19.3 23.6 3.5 4.9 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 0.2 -0.1 0.8 -2.1 19.1 25.5 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.9 1.6 2.5 -1.8 26.2 32.6 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------