***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 7.9 9.5 13.1 150.0 77.5 68.3 1.6 3.4 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 8.9 11.5 12.2 158.2 79.2 69.8 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 8.6 10.3 12.4 147.3 76.9 68.3 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.3 7.9 11.7 123.2 70.9 61.5 2.3 4.2 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 9.2 10.1 13.8 135.1 74.1 66.2 2.3 4.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.2 11.2 122.8 70.8 63.4 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 8.0 10.0 11.8 153.3 78.2 68.4 1.7 3.7 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 11.9 13.6 14.9 144.2 76.4 69.0 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 6.7 7.5 12.7 135.5 74.2 66.6 1.8 3.5 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 10.0 11.2 15.0 140.1 75.4 68.2 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.7 8.3 13.2 131.0 73.0 65.4 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.8 8.7 13.1 138.2 74.8 67.3 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 7.6 7.5 13.6 123.7 70.9 63.7 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 11.3 14.1 16.2 151.5 78.0 69.5 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.4 7.3 8.6 110.6 67.7 56.3 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.9 13.0 129.5 72.6 64.8 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 7.7 9.5 11.2 146.0 76.7 67.0 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 9.7 11.9 16.5 150.8 77.9 70.7 2.4 4.8 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 9.1 11.7 12.6 158.1 79.1 70.5 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 12.4 15.5 19.0 156.6 79.2 71.9 2.5 5.3 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 8.3 8.9 12.6 136.5 74.5 66.6 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 8.4 10.5 12.0 150.9 77.7 69.6 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 7.7 9.8 12.9 150.9 77.7 69.2 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.6 10.4 14.8 148.4 77.3 69.5 1.9 3.9 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 8.5 9.7 15.1 143.1 76.0 67.5 1.9 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.1 11.7 123.0 70.9 64.3 1.7 3.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 8.5 10.1 14.1 148.4 77.2 68.4 1.9 3.9 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 7.3 9.9 117.3 69.3 59.1 2.4 4.2 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 14.6 18.3 17.4 155.7 78.9 72.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 8.3 10.7 12.3 159.9 79.5 70.0 1.8 3.8 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------