***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 7.1 8.0 14.1 131.7 73.1 62.0 2.0 3.8 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.3 7.5 10.7 118.5 69.2 57.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.6 11.2 14.0 130.7 72.9 61.2 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 14.9 14.1 115.9 68.5 56.5 4.8 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.4 11.1 14.7 122.9 70.6 58.3 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.7 8.6 15.0 128.8 72.3 60.9 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.8 6.4 10.7 119.9 69.6 57.6 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.5 17.8 16.7 125.9 71.2 59.8 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.5 15.9 128.9 72.3 60.7 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.1 10.0 15.5 120.1 69.5 58.3 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.7 9.4 15.1 121.0 69.9 58.7 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.9 16.2 131.3 72.9 61.6 2.7 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.8 7.8 15.3 119.6 69.5 57.1 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.0 14.1 17.1 127.0 71.7 61.0 3.5 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.4 11.3 14.1 123.8 71.2 57.8 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.9 15.0 124.4 71.0 59.4 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.5 6.1 10.1 114.9 68.1 56.7 1.6 3.2 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.8 10.0 16.6 123.2 70.5 60.0 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.8 8.7 11.5 120.3 69.7 58.1 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 9.0 21.9 125.9 71.4 59.7 3.0 5.0 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 9.9 11.1 15.5 133.3 73.6 61.7 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.2 8.3 10.6 114.0 67.7 57.3 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.3 9.6 13.1 124.5 70.9 59.0 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.7 12.9 16.2 128.2 72.1 61.2 2.5 5.5 10.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.2 9.4 15.6 126.4 71.6 59.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 5.2 6.1 16.7 138.0 74.8 63.1 1.8 3.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.9 7.9 14.7 129.4 72.5 60.9 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.7 13.3 116.1 68.6 56.5 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 16.3 18.5 124.3 70.9 60.8 4.3 8.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.2 8.0 11.7 123.8 70.8 59.3 1.5 3.6 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------