***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.8 10.1 88.6 57.7 47.6 3.1 6.0 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.0 9.2 98.6 62.7 48.3 2.5 5.2 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 9.9 88.1 57.7 47.2 3.5 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 11.0 88.4 57.6 47.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.1 10.5 82.6 54.1 44.3 3.8 7.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.9 11.0 91.7 57.9 44.0 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.6 8.8 95.7 61.4 47.0 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.3 11.2 83.5 53.4 42.8 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.5 11.1 82.7 54.0 44.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.9 11.3 81.5 52.3 42.9 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.0 10.2 83.1 53.8 43.9 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.3 10.4 85.6 54.8 43.6 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.9 10.8 84.2 53.8 42.6 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.6 12.3 87.3 56.1 45.2 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.1 11.7 95.7 62.5 50.8 2.6 5.8 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.7 10.3 85.5 55.1 44.1 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.7 8.8 99.7 63.1 46.9 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.3 12.1 85.3 54.1 43.8 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.5 96.7 61.7 47.9 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.2 7.7 14.7 83.3 52.9 41.5 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.3 10.7 84.8 55.4 45.7 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.3 9.4 97.9 62.6 47.3 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.5 10.1 92.8 59.6 46.8 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.7 11.4 87.4 56.1 45.3 4.0 7.8 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.0 11.2 84.7 55.2 45.6 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.9 10.8 91.7 58.0 44.6 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.1 10.6 87.9 56.9 47.0 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.8 10.7 90.9 59.3 48.3 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.6 11.6 13.1 86.2 54.3 43.2 5.1 10.1 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.0 9.3 94.4 60.7 48.1 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------