***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.0 10.3 101.2 63.3 51.3 1.3 2.5 4.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.7 8.1 90.6 60.1 49.2 1.7 2.8 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.2 6.3 10.1 101.7 63.5 51.2 2.0 3.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.2 11.7 108.6 65.9 52.2 3.8 6.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.3 10.1 12.2 110.7 66.2 52.8 3.4 6.3 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.1 11.3 103.5 64.0 50.7 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.3 8.0 90.5 60.5 49.1 1.9 3.2 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 15.6 12.7 105.3 64.5 51.5 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.9 13.1 112.2 66.7 53.3 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.9 8.3 13.4 108.0 65.2 52.6 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.2 11.7 108.3 65.6 52.5 3.1 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.3 11.5 107.8 65.5 52.3 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.5 12.0 104.5 63.9 51.8 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.4 8.2 13.5 107.9 65.3 51.7 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.0 11.3 107.2 66.4 51.4 1.5 4.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.9 11.6 107.3 65.2 52.1 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.2 7.8 88.6 59.9 49.0 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.3 14.1 107.2 64.7 52.1 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.3 8.7 93.6 61.0 49.7 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.4 16.4 99.8 62.3 50.0 2.2 4.7 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.8 11.9 109.8 65.8 52.6 2.5 4.4 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.9 8.3 90.6 60.5 49.0 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.2 9.9 99.9 63.0 50.9 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.1 12.7 107.7 65.1 51.5 3.8 6.2 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.8 12.1 106.4 65.0 51.9 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.3 10.8 101.8 63.6 52.4 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.1 11.0 102.0 63.5 51.5 2.5 4.2 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.4 11.2 108.1 66.0 51.7 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.3 14.8 104.6 63.8 51.2 4.6 8.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.6 8.5 91.8 60.6 49.8 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------