***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 33.4 31.0 47.6 116.1 67.6 61.4 14.7 21.7 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 33.4 30.6 40.2 114.8 66.8 60.5 14.7 21.7 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 43.0 40.3 46.4 115.1 67.2 60.4 19.5 28.6 39.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 38.7 41.8 48.5 108.1 62.8 56.7 21.6 32.2 44.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 37.2 42.0 51.3 111.5 65.1 58.3 22.9 32.0 42.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 41.5 36.0 48.5 111.1 64.9 56.4 17.8 26.5 36.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 31.5 28.7 39.3 113.3 66.0 60.2 14.3 20.9 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 52.1 60.3 55.6 113.1 66.2 59.0 32.3 45.1 60.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 35.7 33.2 52.9 112.8 66.0 59.2 17.4 24.7 33.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 34.7 39.1 55.1 110.7 64.6 58.0 19.2 28.8 40.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 31.6 35.0 50.2 110.0 64.1 57.8 18.3 26.5 36.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.6 36.7 51.2 114.7 67.4 60.2 15.6 24.5 35.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 18.1 36.0 51.7 107.5 62.2 55.3 18.7 28.0 39.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 44.5 52.7 59.0 116.4 68.3 60.2 28.8 39.0 50.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 32.1 36.7 45.6 109.0 63.6 56.9 16.7 26.4 38.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 37.9 33.6 49.8 111.0 64.7 57.8 16.6 24.8 34.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.9 27.6 38.0 111.2 64.8 59.2 13.5 20.2 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 32.9 40.4 59.4 114.6 67.4 60.5 18.4 27.7 39.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 36.7 34.5 42.2 115.5 67.3 60.5 17.6 25.0 33.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 35.5 42.5 72.0 113.4 66.6 58.7 19.7 29.7 42.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 38.8 36.6 50.7 114.5 66.9 60.0 20.0 27.5 36.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.7 31.4 40.4 111.9 65.2 59.3 15.3 22.7 31.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 34.7 32.9 46.1 115.4 67.3 59.8 16.1 23.4 32.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 46.6 46.0 55.1 116.1 68.1 60.8 24.8 33.9 44.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 42.8 39.7 54.0 113.8 66.4 60.3 21.3 29.6 39.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 35.8 33.2 50.0 113.6 66.6 59.3 14.9 22.9 32.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 37.5 35.0 50.3 115.3 67.3 61.2 17.6 25.2 34.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.4 30.8 45.1 107.5 62.4 56.0 14.9 23.0 33.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 51.1 63.2 63.9 115.2 68.0 60.7 30.1 43.9 60.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 33.1 30.9 41.9 115.3 67.1 60.6 15.3 22.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------