***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 -0.3 0.1 0.5 2.6 77.4 76.2 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 2.4 74.3 73.0 -5.4 -3.5 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 0.9 1.3 0.3 2.6 76.9 75.6 -2.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -4.0 -3.4 -2.5 2.3 74.3 72.9 -7.9 -6.1 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 -1.7 -1.4 -2.0 2.3 74.0 72.6 -5.0 -3.5 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 -2.5 -1.8 -3.0 3.4 81.6 80.0 -6.1 -4.7 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.1 2.5 75.1 73.8 -5.4 -3.3 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 -5.2 -4.7 -2.1 3.2 79.9 78.0 -8.8 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 -2.6 -1.6 -2.6 1.4 65.0 64.0 -4.5 -2.9 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 -1.8 -1.3 -2.1 2.6 75.0 73.4 -5.1 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.2 2.4 74.8 73.5 -5.5 -3.8 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 -2.4 -1.6 -1.6 3.3 81.6 79.8 -6.3 -4.7 -3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -1.3 -0.1 -1.4 3.8 85.3 83.7 -6.2 -4.4 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -0.5 -1.4 2.1 72.0 70.2 -4.4 -2.7 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 -2.9 -2.2 -2.7 0.9 59.8 58.9 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 -1.0 -0.4 -2.2 3.0 79.2 77.8 -4.4 -3.0 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 -1.3 -1.2 -0.6 2.0 71.4 70.1 -5.6 -3.6 -1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 -3.0 -2.1 -1.9 3.3 80.0 77.9 -7.5 -5.6 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 2.2 73.4 72.1 -5.0 -3.2 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -6.1 -4.6 -2.0 4.4 84.9 82.7 -10.9 -9.1 -7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 -1.6 -1.3 -0.6 2.0 71.1 70.1 -4.5 -3.1 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 -1.7 -1.6 -0.6 1.8 69.6 68.4 -5.6 -3.8 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5 2.1 72.3 70.9 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 2.6 75.7 74.0 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 2.7 78.1 76.6 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 -1.5 -0.5 -1.4 3.6 83.9 81.9 -5.4 -3.9 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 -0.5 0.3 0.3 3.0 80.2 78.6 -4.9 -3.1 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3 2.1 71.6 70.1 -6.1 -4.5 -3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 -3.2 -2.5 -2.4 3.6 79.8 77.8 -7.1 -5.5 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 2.5 75.5 74.2 -5.3 -3.3 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------