***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 4.4 5.8 5.3 1.5 65.8 64.4 2.3 4.1 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.4 4.4 4.8 1.2 62.2 61.2 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 4.7 6.1 5.5 1.5 65.2 63.6 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 0.5 1.6 2.6 1.0 61.8 60.6 -1.8 0.2 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 4.5 5.0 3.5 0.7 58.0 57.1 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 5.6 5.7 3.7 1.4 67.3 65.4 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 2.9 4.0 4.6 1.2 62.2 61.3 0.7 2.6 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.3 1.2 3.9 1.1 63.4 61.7 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 5.4 5.2 3.7 0.1 51.3 50.9 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 4.4 4.8 3.9 0.7 57.6 56.5 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 4.7 5.8 4.1 1.2 63.6 62.1 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 6.6 6.9 4.6 1.7 69.2 67.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.5 5.1 1.8 71.5 69.2 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 5.2 5.6 4.8 0.7 57.3 56.2 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 4.3 5.3 3.6 1.1 60.4 59.6 1.9 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 46 54 100 6.5 6.8 4.3 1.6 69.0 66.9 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.8 58.4 57.7 0.8 2.6 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 2.6 2.8 3.9 0.6 56.8 55.8 0.8 2.2 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 3.7 4.8 5.0 1.2 62.4 61.3 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 1.4 1.5 2.8 0.5 55.9 55.0 -0.7 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 4.9 5.5 4.8 0.8 58.6 57.6 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 3.6 4.0 4.2 0.7 57.1 56.5 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 3.6 4.6 5.0 1.2 61.8 60.5 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.8 6.5 5.0 0.9 59.7 58.4 3.1 5.3 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 3.9 5.0 4.4 1.3 65.0 63.4 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 5.7 6.0 4.3 1.5 69.3 67.3 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.6 5.8 4.9 1.4 65.2 63.7 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 5.1 6.6 3.6 1.4 65.1 63.7 2.4 4.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 2.6 3.1 3.5 0.7 58.6 57.4 0.3 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 3.2 4.5 5.1 1.4 63.9 62.7 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------