***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 2.7 2.5 -0.8 41.6 46.1 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.7 2.4 -0.8 41.1 46.8 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.0 2.7 -0.6 43.3 47.3 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -2.7 -1.2 0.4 -0.6 43.5 47.6 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.3 1.2 -0.3 46.3 49.3 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.4 0.8 0.2 52.5 52.9 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.2 2.3 -0.8 41.2 46.9 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -1.5 1.3 0.2 52.7 53.1 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.1 2.2 -0.2 48.3 50.4 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.9 1.8 0.1 51.4 52.4 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.9 1.3 -0.1 48.5 50.7 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 50.7 51.9 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.9 1.1 0.0 50.5 51.6 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.0 2.6 -0.2 47.7 50.2 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.5 0.6 -0.6 43.2 47.4 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.2 1.0 -0.1 48.5 50.6 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.4 2.4 -0.7 41.9 47.9 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 1.7 0.2 52.5 53.1 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.5 2.9 2.6 -0.8 41.8 47.0 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.4 54.4 54.0 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.5 2.4 -0.4 45.8 48.7 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.2 2.6 -0.7 42.8 48.3 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.2 2.9 -0.6 43.5 47.7 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.9 2.5 -0.1 48.8 50.8 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.9 1.2 -0.6 42.9 47.0 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.5 1.0 0.1 51.6 52.2 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.2 1.9 -0.7 42.1 46.5 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.4 0.6 -0.5 44.6 48.3 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.3 52.7 53.1 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.5 2.5 -0.8 41.0 46.4 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------