***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.5 3.7 -0.4 46.2 47.3 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.7 3.6 -0.4 45.9 47.5 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.8 3.9 -0.3 47.0 47.8 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -0.4 1.4 -0.3 47.2 48.2 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.6 2.2 -0.1 48.6 49.0 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.8 1.5 0.0 50.2 50.1 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.2 3.5 -0.4 45.8 47.4 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.3 -1.2 2.0 0.0 50.1 49.9 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 6.5 3.1 -0.1 49.3 49.2 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.2 2.6 0.0 49.8 49.5 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.1 2.3 0.0 49.9 49.9 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.2 2.4 0.1 51.0 50.7 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.0 2.0 0.1 50.8 50.6 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.9 3.6 -0.2 47.6 48.0 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.2 1.6 -0.3 47.1 48.4 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.2 2.0 0.0 50.1 50.0 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.6 3.5 -0.4 46.2 47.9 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.3 2.6 -0.1 49.1 49.0 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.8 3.8 -0.4 46.2 47.5 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.1 0.9 -0.2 48.2 48.6 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.1 3.5 -0.2 48.3 48.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.3 3.7 -0.4 46.5 48.0 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.5 4.0 -0.4 46.6 47.6 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.8 3.5 -0.2 48.4 48.5 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.4 2.1 -0.4 46.0 47.3 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.7 1.9 0.1 51.7 51.4 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.7 2.9 -0.4 45.8 47.1 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.3 1.6 -0.2 48.1 48.9 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.7 2.7 1.9 -0.1 48.6 48.8 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.4 3.7 -0.4 45.9 47.4 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------