***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.8 30.6 24.4 484.2 99.3 97.7 1.5 2.9 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.8 28.9 21.7 437.7 98.5 96.6 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 8.9 32.6 23.3 443.3 98.9 96.3 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.5 27.0 27.6 404.2 98.6 95.9 2.5 4.4 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 10.2 35.6 26.9 436.3 98.9 96.2 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 8.5 25.4 24.4 413.4 97.7 94.0 1.5 3.1 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.8 27.6 21.2 436.3 98.5 96.8 1.2 2.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 14.9 53.6 29.2 455.3 98.8 95.3 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 6.4 18.6 26.1 427.4 98.7 95.7 1.6 2.9 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 9.8 30.4 27.1 413.5 98.5 94.7 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 8.4 28.4 25.4 439.4 98.5 94.8 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 7.2 24.0 26.8 457.2 98.6 95.3 1.4 2.8 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.1 22.7 25.5 420.8 97.9 94.7 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 11.7 32.1 26.4 375.1 97.5 93.6 2.5 4.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 7.9 20.4 23.7 351.3 96.9 91.3 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.4 30.2 25.3 444.6 98.4 95.2 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.7 20.1 20.0 397.6 97.5 94.7 1.7 3.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 9.7 28.0 28.5 395.0 98.2 94.2 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 9.1 32.3 22.2 436.3 98.7 96.4 1.5 3.2 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 10.0 34.9 39.5 450.3 98.9 95.7 2.0 3.9 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.8 23.4 25.5 450.9 98.8 96.3 2.0 3.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 9.5 25.9 20.6 377.9 97.1 94.1 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 8.1 31.7 23.1 414.2 98.6 95.4 1.1 2.6 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 9.1 25.3 25.9 394.5 98.2 94.3 2.3 4.1 6.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.8 35.1 28.4 454.7 99.2 97.5 1.5 3.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 5.4 12.4 23.9 387.2 97.0 92.7 1.5 2.6 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.3 32.4 26.6 468.7 99.1 97.7 1.4 3.1 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 8.4 23.9 25.2 385.2 97.7 93.6 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 15.2 44.4 30.6 398.8 98.3 94.4 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.9 29.3 22.1 449.4 98.8 97.0 1.3 2.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------