***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 11.7 13.7 151.2 78.7 64.9 2.5 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 9.2 10.8 11.8 135.9 74.3 61.3 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 11.8 15.4 14.4 147.1 77.7 64.2 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 15.8 19.8 17.5 150.7 77.8 67.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.0 14.7 17.2 142.8 76.2 65.5 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.6 11.0 18.4 140.8 75.6 65.9 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 8.0 10.0 11.7 143.2 76.3 62.6 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.5 21.8 19.6 146.7 77.2 67.3 5.6 9.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 10.1 12.4 17.5 141.7 76.0 65.3 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 11.2 13.3 19.0 142.0 76.0 66.1 4.1 6.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 10.6 12.4 16.5 140.3 75.5 65.1 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.0 13.4 17.1 143.8 76.4 66.5 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.4 12.0 17.3 141.2 75.6 66.5 3.6 6.0 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.8 18.1 17.3 128.9 72.3 61.9 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.9 16.7 17.3 145.0 76.4 64.3 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 8.7 10.0 16.2 137.2 74.6 64.3 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.4 10.5 129.4 72.4 58.1 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.0 13.1 20.9 142.8 76.3 66.9 4.2 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 12.5 12.2 132.0 73.3 59.8 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 13.3 16.6 25.7 154.3 79.2 68.7 4.7 7.8 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.9 14.0 16.0 148.4 77.7 66.0 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.0 9.7 11.2 120.5 69.6 56.9 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 11.0 13.3 127.2 71.7 57.7 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 13.8 16.2 18.0 139.8 75.5 64.9 4.1 7.5 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.6 15.5 16.9 153.9 79.0 67.9 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 8.0 9.6 18.2 149.9 77.7 67.9 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 9.5 12.8 15.2 152.5 78.8 66.6 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 10.0 12.1 17.0 141.2 75.6 63.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 18.6 22.9 22.7 145.9 77.2 67.6 6.3 10.8 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 9.6 11.6 12.3 140.5 75.7 61.8 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------