***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.3 12.5 13.2 133.6 73.8 61.2 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 9.5 12.0 13.0 147.5 77.6 61.1 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.0 15.7 13.5 128.2 72.0 59.7 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.9 14.9 112.9 66.7 54.9 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.9 12.8 15.0 106.2 63.6 53.7 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.4 15.5 104.2 63.3 53.2 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.1 12.8 12.8 150.7 78.5 61.7 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 14.0 16.2 97.6 60.1 51.3 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.3 9.9 15.2 105.6 63.0 53.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.7 16.4 101.4 61.3 52.8 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.9 10.2 14.2 102.6 62.4 53.1 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.1 13.9 97.3 60.1 50.9 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.4 14.7 103.1 62.4 53.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.3 16.9 15.9 118.2 68.4 58.0 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.5 9.7 14.2 114.2 67.8 52.9 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.1 14.1 105.6 63.7 53.8 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 9.4 11.9 12.4 149.1 78.0 59.8 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.9 18.0 104.4 62.6 54.1 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.3 12.8 13.1 142.3 76.2 60.6 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.5 21.2 102.4 62.1 52.9 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.3 12.1 14.0 113.3 66.4 55.9 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 10.3 12.1 12.8 139.6 75.4 58.2 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.1 11.5 13.5 131.7 73.3 59.5 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 15.4 15.9 112.9 66.2 56.6 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.3 15.4 123.6 70.4 59.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.5 14.4 99.1 61.1 51.3 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.2 14.6 14.8 135.0 74.3 61.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.0 9.8 14.4 110.7 66.3 53.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.7 19.4 106.5 63.6 54.6 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 10.3 12.8 13.1 144.1 76.7 61.5 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------