***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.6 5.0 10.4 126.2 72.3 57.0 1.5 2.7 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 4.3 4.8 10.1 136.4 74.6 57.9 1.3 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.5 6.1 10.8 122.3 71.1 56.1 1.3 2.8 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.5 11.4 107.0 66.9 54.9 4.0 6.7 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.3 11.4 107.0 66.8 55.7 3.2 5.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.2 11.3 106.1 66.6 55.6 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.4 9.8 133.9 74.1 57.7 1.3 2.5 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.1 12.4 109.7 67.3 56.9 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.0 5.0 11.6 106.9 66.6 55.2 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.9 12.2 107.0 66.3 55.8 2.6 4.5 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.0 10.6 106.2 66.5 56.0 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.4 8.3 10.7 108.4 67.4 56.8 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.2 9.5 11.0 107.5 67.2 56.8 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 5.3 7.6 13.1 120.9 70.2 57.2 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 7.9 10.3 99.9 65.0 51.3 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.2 6.5 10.4 105.7 66.7 56.0 2.4 4.1 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.3 9.2 136.5 74.6 57.4 1.3 2.7 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.2 13.5 109.6 66.8 56.1 2.5 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.9 10.5 136.7 74.6 57.9 1.3 2.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.7 16.4 113.5 68.4 57.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.6 11.1 113.2 68.5 55.4 1.9 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.7 6.3 10.1 144.5 76.3 59.7 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.4 5.6 11.3 131.9 73.4 57.6 1.2 2.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.1 12.4 113.6 68.2 55.7 2.5 4.7 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.9 12.1 120.6 70.6 56.8 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 9.4 8.3 10.7 105.3 66.7 56.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.5 11.5 127.2 72.4 57.6 1.9 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.0 6.0 10.6 101.3 65.4 52.9 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.5 14.6 111.4 67.5 57.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.3 4.4 10.3 132.8 73.8 57.5 1.3 2.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------