***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 35.7 57.7 61.8 191.4 93.2 86.9 15.0 21.5 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 35.4 57.0 56.6 189.6 93.0 85.7 14.1 20.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 47.2 72.7 61.9 180.3 91.7 85.0 19.1 27.8 38.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 54.5 77.2 71.3 168.8 87.7 81.2 21.8 32.7 45.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 48.7 65.2 70.5 164.0 87.7 81.5 23.2 31.9 41.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 42.6 57.4 69.7 156.4 85.5 79.4 17.8 26.4 36.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 33.6 52.3 55.5 192.5 93.1 86.6 14.6 20.6 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 71.9 97.8 77.5 162.4 88.1 82.3 31.1 44.3 60.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 37.5 50.1 70.3 161.2 87.8 81.5 17.5 24.3 32.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 45.9 60.6 74.7 157.1 87.2 81.4 21.4 29.7 39.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 41.8 56.5 66.6 161.3 86.9 80.7 18.8 26.7 35.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 42.3 60.0 68.6 163.3 87.4 81.7 15.5 24.2 34.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 45.1 61.4 68.5 160.1 86.2 80.9 18.5 27.5 38.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 58.5 80.5 72.8 162.4 89.2 82.8 27.1 37.6 49.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 45.6 60.7 65.5 158.1 83.3 75.3 16.7 26.4 38.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 39.6 54.5 65.9 162.3 86.5 80.3 16.3 24.2 33.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 33.0 50.7 52.2 184.8 91.8 83.4 13.8 19.9 27.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 45.8 63.3 80.9 157.3 87.5 82.0 17.9 26.9 37.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 39.2 61.0 58.1 185.7 92.7 85.1 17.1 24.3 32.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 48.2 70.7 102.8 169.3 90.0 84.1 19.3 28.4 39.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 40.8 55.0 66.7 172.7 89.8 83.5 20.4 27.2 34.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 36.8 58.8 54.7 177.2 91.0 81.5 14.7 21.9 31.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 37.4 59.0 61.2 175.6 91.5 83.7 15.1 22.3 30.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 52.0 69.4 72.2 162.5 88.7 82.7 25.1 34.2 44.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 46.3 69.0 72.7 183.4 92.0 86.2 21.2 29.3 38.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 36.8 50.5 67.2 156.3 85.1 78.4 14.4 22.0 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 40.5 64.4 68.1 191.1 93.6 87.8 17.7 24.9 33.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 38.6 53.2 67.1 159.7 84.5 77.3 14.3 22.5 32.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 72.4 101.3 87.2 160.0 88.2 82.7 28.3 42.2 59.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 35.3 56.0 57.8 189.4 93.0 86.1 14.8 21.2 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------