***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 1.3 2.3 2.5 -1.7 33.5 38.0 2.2 3.9 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.7 -1.6 33.9 38.6 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 1.8 2.9 3.3 -1.5 36.0 39.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -3.7 -2.4 -0.2 -1.6 34.5 37.8 -2.6 -0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.0 1.5 -1.4 36.2 39.3 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.7 3.2 0.9 -1.0 40.6 42.9 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 0.2 1.2 2.5 -1.7 33.4 38.2 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -1.7 1.4 -1.1 39.7 42.1 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.7 2.5 -1.3 37.1 40.1 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.2 1.9 -1.2 38.6 41.2 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.2 2.0 -1.2 38.0 40.6 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.7 1.8 -1.0 39.8 42.1 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.3 1.8 -1.1 39.8 42.0 2.6 4.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.7 3.4 -1.2 39.7 41.9 2.9 5.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 0.3 1.6 1.2 -1.6 34.2 37.4 1.4 3.5 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.7 1.4 -1.3 37.7 40.5 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 0.6 1.6 2.9 -1.3 36.6 40.4 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.2 1.8 -1.1 39.8 42.1 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.9 2.9 -1.7 34.2 38.6 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.2 0.3 -1.0 40.2 42.8 0.4 2.3 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.1 3.4 3.2 -1.3 37.7 40.6 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.0 2.2 3.2 -1.3 37.3 40.8 1.7 3.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.0 2.0 3.2 -1.6 35.2 39.0 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.8 3.2 -1.1 39.7 41.9 3.0 5.0 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.0 2.0 1.5 -1.6 34.4 38.0 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.5 1.2 -0.9 40.2 42.9 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 1.3 2.4 2.1 -1.7 32.8 37.3 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 0.9 2.4 0.7 -1.5 36.0 39.0 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.2 1.3 1.3 -1.1 39.8 42.2 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 0.5 1.5 2.6 -1.8 33.0 37.9 1.5 3.2 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------