***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 4.7 5.1 0.9 59.1 56.7 1.7 3.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.5 5.1 0.8 57.9 56.2 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.0 5.8 1.1 60.6 57.6 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.1 0.1 2.4 0.7 56.5 54.7 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.9 3.9 1.0 60.2 57.1 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.6 3.3 1.4 63.9 59.6 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.5 4.1 5.0 0.7 57.4 56.0 1.3 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -0.7 3.8 1.3 63.1 59.4 -3.1 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.6 4.8 1.2 61.4 57.8 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.1 4.3 1.3 62.2 58.6 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.3 4.0 1.1 61.1 57.6 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.4 4.1 1.2 62.6 59.1 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.2 3.4 1.1 61.9 58.7 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.0 5.5 1.4 63.1 59.2 3.1 5.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.7 3.0 0.5 54.9 53.9 2.4 4.2 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.6 3.5 1.1 61.0 57.8 3.3 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.0 4.2 5.3 0.9 59.4 57.0 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.5 4.3 1.2 62.0 58.7 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.3 4.9 5.5 0.9 59.1 56.9 1.8 3.9 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 3.4 2.7 2.4 1.1 61.8 59.3 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.3 5.3 1.2 61.7 58.1 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.5 5.2 5.5 1.1 60.7 57.9 2.1 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.4 5.1 6.1 1.2 61.2 57.9 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.5 5.2 1.3 62.0 58.4 3.1 5.1 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.4 3.6 0.8 57.8 55.6 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.0 5.5 3.3 1.1 62.7 59.6 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 5.1 4.5 0.8 58.5 56.2 2.1 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.0 2.9 0.8 57.8 55.8 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.4 2.7 3.6 1.2 61.8 58.9 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.0 4.3 5.0 0.8 57.8 56.1 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------