***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.5 5.2 0.4 53.4 55.0 2.7 5.1 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.5 5.1 0.2 52.0 54.7 2.9 5.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.7 5.7 0.4 53.7 55.1 3.9 6.2 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.3 2.6 0.4 53.7 54.4 -2.1 -0.1 1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 3.9 0.5 54.6 54.7 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 2.8 0.4 53.5 53.1 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.0 5.1 0.2 52.0 54.8 2.4 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.0 3.3 0.2 52.2 52.8 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.1 4.6 0.5 54.1 54.3 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.5 3.9 0.3 52.4 52.8 4.2 6.2 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.6 3.9 0.4 53.7 54.0 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.5 3.8 0.3 53.2 53.7 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.3 3.1 0.3 53.4 53.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.7 5.1 0.4 53.2 54.1 4.9 7.3 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.0 3.3 0.4 53.6 55.0 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.6 3.4 0.4 53.5 53.7 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.3 5.2 0.2 52.2 54.7 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.5 3.9 0.2 51.8 52.7 3.6 5.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 5.4 0.3 52.4 54.6 2.9 5.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.4 2.0 0.1 51.5 52.3 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.8 5.2 0.5 54.3 54.8 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.1 5.3 0.2 52.2 54.4 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.3 5.8 0.3 52.9 54.4 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.4 4.9 0.3 52.9 53.8 4.6 7.0 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.2 3.7 0.4 53.6 54.5 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.0 3.2 0.4 54.7 54.4 3.7 5.5 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.6 4.6 0.3 52.9 54.4 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.9 2.9 0.4 53.3 54.3 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.0 3.2 0.2 51.5 52.5 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.3 5.1 0.2 52.3 54.9 2.6 5.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------