***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 3.3 3.5 -0.9 37.8 43.3 2.9 4.2 5.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.5 -1.0 36.6 42.8 2.4 3.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.0 4.0 -0.9 38.1 43.6 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.8 -1.1 0.9 -0.9 38.3 42.0 -1.5 -0.2 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.0 2.3 -0.8 39.3 43.2 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.9 3.7 1.5 -0.6 40.5 43.6 3.2 4.2 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.6 2.3 3.4 -0.9 36.7 42.7 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -1.7 1.9 -0.8 38.2 42.3 -2.0 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.7 3.3 -0.7 40.1 44.0 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.0 2.5 -0.9 37.7 42.0 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.2 2.6 -0.7 39.5 43.2 3.7 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.5 2.4 -0.7 40.0 43.6 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.1 2.2 -0.7 39.3 42.8 3.6 4.8 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.5 3.8 -0.8 38.6 43.4 4.0 5.6 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.5 2.1 -0.8 39.6 43.0 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.5 2.0 -0.8 38.9 42.5 4.1 5.3 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.7 2.6 3.6 -0.8 38.5 43.8 2.2 3.4 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.3 2.7 2.3 -0.9 36.6 41.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 36.5 42.9 2.6 4.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.4 0.8 0.8 -0.9 35.8 40.6 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.4 3.8 -0.7 40.2 44.4 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.2 3.8 -0.8 38.5 44.2 2.7 4.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.1 4.0 -1.0 37.1 43.2 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.6 3.6 -0.9 38.1 42.9 4.1 5.6 6.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.0 2.3 -0.9 37.5 42.2 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.1 2.0 -0.5 42.5 45.4 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.4 3.0 -0.9 36.3 42.0 3.1 4.4 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.2 1.6 -0.8 39.5 42.9 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.2 1.7 -0.9 35.9 41.0 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.9 2.5 3.4 -1.0 36.3 42.7 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------