***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.3 9.2 13.7 124.0 71.0 61.4 2.5 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 10.4 12.6 131.3 73.2 61.0 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.0 13.6 121.3 70.2 60.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.7 14.0 112.9 67.6 56.0 5.0 8.9 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.9 13.0 16.4 131.2 72.6 62.8 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.5 13.3 108.9 66.1 53.3 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.5 8.9 12.5 130.8 73.0 60.8 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 15.9 15.2 112.5 66.4 53.3 5.6 9.9 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.2 14.2 110.0 66.1 55.6 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.6 13.8 103.0 63.1 51.3 4.1 6.8 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.5 10.8 15.4 123.7 70.4 58.3 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.4 14.4 116.3 68.1 54.3 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.5 9.6 14.8 112.9 67.3 56.1 3.6 6.0 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 15.5 15.7 111.9 66.9 55.7 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.2 13.1 114.4 68.8 56.1 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.7 13.4 108.9 65.6 53.2 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.4 7.9 11.5 120.9 70.4 58.6 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.5 14.7 104.0 63.6 51.9 4.2 6.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.9 12.1 12.8 129.0 72.4 60.4 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.1 20.9 115.8 67.4 56.0 4.7 7.8 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.5 10.1 13.9 112.3 67.1 57.3 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.9 11.9 119.9 69.9 57.8 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.2 10.7 13.4 123.1 70.7 59.6 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.5 14.8 112.0 66.9 55.9 4.1 7.5 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 11.5 12.3 16.4 128.2 72.2 64.6 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.6 13.7 105.6 64.8 53.0 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 9.5 10.2 15.0 128.6 72.3 63.7 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.3 12.8 110.6 67.0 53.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 16.2 16.2 106.8 64.8 52.8 6.3 10.8 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.3 10.4 13.0 130.9 73.0 61.5 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------