***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.2 12.9 122.2 70.4 58.3 2.9 5.7 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 9.0 11.1 117.7 69.1 57.3 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.2 12.0 111.9 66.9 55.6 3.4 7.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.9 13.7 109.5 66.8 54.4 4.4 7.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.4 13.6 106.1 65.0 54.3 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.7 13.1 103.9 64.2 52.5 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 10.1 11.3 124.9 71.3 58.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.3 13.5 96.8 61.1 52.3 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.0 13.6 102.3 63.5 53.6 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.3 13.4 94.4 60.1 51.5 4.8 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.2 12.6 99.5 62.3 52.4 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.8 12.5 100.2 62.5 52.6 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.5 10.9 13.4 103.2 64.0 53.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.0 13.1 13.3 95.3 60.4 52.7 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.5 12.9 109.1 67.5 53.9 2.1 4.7 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.7 12.4 99.5 62.7 52.0 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.4 9.4 11.1 123.4 70.8 58.6 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.8 13.6 91.5 58.6 51.4 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.3 9.4 11.0 112.0 67.2 56.3 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.0 17.3 95.0 60.3 52.7 3.8 6.7 10.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.4 11.9 13.1 109.0 66.0 55.0 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.2 11.2 114.0 67.9 57.5 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.7 11.3 105.3 64.8 54.8 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.9 12.6 94.5 60.1 52.2 5.5 9.8 15.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.9 14.5 119.2 69.6 58.7 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.7 12.9 105.3 65.0 53.7 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 13.1 12.9 13.7 123.4 70.8 59.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.5 12.7 105.0 65.6 53.2 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 14.5 90.5 58.3 51.5 5.9 10.6 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.8 9.9 11.5 118.0 69.2 57.1 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------