***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 24.2 32.4 48.8 122.1 71.0 64.1 15.0 21.5 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 23.7 29.3 41.0 116.0 67.5 61.8 14.1 20.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 31.5 40.6 47.5 118.1 68.8 62.2 19.1 27.8 38.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 37.7 50.3 56.8 122.0 70.6 62.5 21.8 32.7 45.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 43.8 47.5 58.8 125.3 72.8 65.2 23.2 31.9 41.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 40.1 47.5 60.6 135.7 77.9 70.1 17.8 26.4 36.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.4 28.3 40.5 116.3 67.6 61.6 14.6 20.6 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 50.3 62.2 59.4 116.4 68.1 60.6 31.1 44.3 60.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 26.9 33.3 55.7 116.8 68.3 61.4 17.5 24.3 32.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 33.2 39.9 58.3 114.8 67.1 60.3 21.4 29.7 39.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 30.1 40.0 56.9 122.6 71.6 63.6 18.8 26.7 35.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 28.3 37.5 54.6 118.8 69.4 61.5 15.5 24.2 34.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 41.6 44.5 60.1 124.9 73.1 65.6 18.5 27.5 38.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 42.4 47.8 56.0 109.8 63.9 58.0 27.1 37.6 49.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 31.6 40.9 50.9 117.7 68.1 60.5 16.7 26.4 38.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 35.3 37.2 55.2 121.1 70.7 62.7 16.3 24.2 33.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 22.8 26.4 38.0 110.4 64.4 58.6 13.8 19.9 27.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 31.2 37.0 59.1 111.5 65.1 58.8 17.9 26.9 37.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 27.3 33.5 42.4 116.0 67.5 62.0 17.1 24.3 32.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 32.7 39.7 74.1 113.8 66.5 59.9 19.3 28.4 39.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 30.1 36.3 52.4 117.2 68.4 61.3 20.4 27.2 34.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 25.2 29.2 39.8 108.6 63.4 58.1 14.7 21.9 31.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 25.3 31.6 45.4 114.7 66.9 61.2 15.1 22.3 30.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 38.3 43.6 53.9 111.3 64.9 58.6 25.1 34.2 44.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 40.2 43.7 58.1 125.2 72.7 65.8 21.2 29.3 38.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 35.4 38.5 59.5 129.5 74.7 68.0 14.4 22.0 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 35.0 37.5 52.7 124.6 72.3 65.7 17.7 24.9 33.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 26.4 36.1 53.0 120.8 69.9 61.8 14.3 22.5 32.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 49.1 56.9 62.4 110.4 64.4 58.3 28.3 42.2 59.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 30.0 30.2 42.8 117.8 68.6 62.6 14.8 21.2 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------