***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.3 5.1 1.7 71.0 70.1 2.3 4.0 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 5.8 6.4 5.6 2.6 78.2 77.1 1.1 3.0 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 7.0 7.2 5.6 2.0 74.2 73.0 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.7 72.3 71.1 -2.0 0.2 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 4.6 5.4 3.1 0.9 61.5 60.9 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 5.5 5.3 3.0 1.0 62.9 62.2 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 5.4 5.7 5.2 2.4 76.0 75.0 0.7 2.6 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 0.2 1.0 3.2 0.9 61.5 60.8 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 6.9 7.0 4.5 1.4 67.2 66.2 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 4.5 5.7 4.0 1.2 65.1 64.3 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 4.6 5.3 3.2 0.7 58.9 58.5 2.5 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 5.2 5.7 3.0 0.6 57.9 57.5 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 4.5 4.9 3.4 0.6 57.8 57.4 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 8.1 8.3 5.8 2.4 75.4 74.4 2.4 4.7 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 7.0 7.7 4.4 2.5 77.7 76.3 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 5.1 5.7 3.0 0.7 59.8 59.3 3.0 4.7 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 5.4 6.3 5.7 3.1 81.6 80.3 0.8 2.6 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 2.5 3.1 3.5 0.7 59.2 58.9 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 6.3 6.9 5.8 2.6 78.4 77.2 1.4 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 1.3 1.4 2.1 0.2 53.1 52.9 -0.6 1.1 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 6.4 6.6 4.9 1.4 68.1 67.2 2.7 4.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 6.5 7.5 6.1 3.2 83.0 81.6 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 6.2 6.6 5.8 2.5 77.4 76.2 1.4 3.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 7.5 7.7 5.0 1.6 68.9 68.0 3.0 5.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 5.7 5.7 4.1 1.6 71.0 69.9 1.9 3.6 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 4.5 4.4 2.6 0.2 52.3 52.2 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.4 4.6 1.6 70.0 69.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.6 3.6 1.9 72.4 71.2 2.2 4.5 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 2.3 2.6 2.8 0.4 54.8 54.6 0.3 2.1 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 5.7 5.9 5.4 2.3 75.3 74.4 1.1 3.0 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------