***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.6 4.7 0.7 56.8 55.8 3.1 5.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.0 4.9 1.0 60.1 58.4 3.3 5.6 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.8 5.0 0.8 57.8 56.6 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.3 1.6 2.8 0.9 59.5 57.7 -1.6 0.5 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.1 3.2 0.7 56.5 55.4 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.8 2.0 0.4 53.7 53.8 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.5 4.7 0.9 59.5 58.0 2.8 5.2 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -0.7 2.4 0.2 52.2 52.9 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.8 3.9 0.6 55.8 54.8 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.1 3.1 0.3 53.2 53.4 4.5 6.7 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.2 3.0 0.4 54.4 54.1 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.9 2.8 0.2 52.5 52.9 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.8 6.6 2.3 0.1 51.0 51.9 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.5 4.4 0.6 56.6 55.7 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.4 3.1 1.2 62.6 60.2 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.2 2.6 0.4 53.8 53.7 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.7 4.9 1.1 61.7 59.5 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.0 2.8 0.1 51.2 52.3 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.2 5.1 1.0 60.0 58.3 3.3 5.8 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.3 2.5 0.8 -0.2 47.6 50.5 0.9 2.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.7 4.5 0.7 56.9 55.6 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.8 5.2 1.2 62.5 59.8 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.5 5.2 0.9 59.3 57.6 4.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.1 4.1 0.5 54.8 54.6 5.0 7.4 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.2 3.2 0.7 57.0 55.9 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.9 2.0 0.0 49.7 51.3 4.1 6.0 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.6 3.9 0.6 56.0 55.2 3.5 5.8 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.2 3.0 1.1 60.5 58.5 4.6 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 0.9 3.2 1.9 -0.1 49.2 51.2 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.6 4.9 0.9 59.0 57.6 3.0 5.4 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------