***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 5.7 5.9 5.0 1.4 70.0 66.6 2.9 4.3 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.5 6.1 5.2 1.9 75.6 72.0 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 6.6 6.9 5.3 1.5 71.1 67.5 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.3 1.4 2.8 1.4 70.3 67.1 -1.5 -0.2 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.0 3.2 1.0 64.6 62.0 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.2 2.4 0.9 62.6 60.4 3.2 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.7 5.0 1.7 74.5 71.0 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.3 2.7 0.6 59.9 58.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.1 7.0 4.2 1.1 66.5 63.3 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.0 3.4 0.8 62.6 60.1 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.1 3.1 0.8 62.3 60.0 3.8 5.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.0 2.9 0.6 59.8 58.0 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.6 2.7 0.5 58.6 57.1 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.5 4.8 1.4 69.6 66.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.7 3.5 1.9 76.1 72.6 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.3 2.8 0.8 61.6 59.6 4.1 5.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.1 5.8 5.2 2.0 77.6 74.1 2.2 3.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.2 3.0 0.5 57.6 56.0 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.5 5.4 1.8 75.1 71.5 2.7 4.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.1 51.5 51.2 0.6 1.9 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.7 4.7 1.2 68.1 64.8 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.8 5.5 2.1 78.4 74.8 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 5.8 6.3 5.4 1.7 73.5 69.8 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.0 4.4 1.0 65.1 62.2 4.2 5.7 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.4 3.6 1.3 69.5 66.2 2.8 4.0 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.4 56.3 55.3 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 5.9 6.0 4.3 1.3 68.9 65.6 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.8 7.1 3.2 1.5 71.5 68.3 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.5 2.2 0.2 53.5 52.8 1.0 2.3 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.8 5.2 1.7 73.7 70.1 2.3 3.7 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------