***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.6 3.1 40.5 34.5 28.2 1.5 3.1 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.7 4.2 56.3 44.8 36.5 1.7 3.3 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 1.6 1.9 3.4 43.1 34.7 29.6 1.7 3.7 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.4 2.2 3.2 36.3 27.0 24.9 2.8 5.1 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.4 40.0 29.4 26.7 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.4 4.1 53.1 41.8 37.4 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.5 4.0 57.4 45.8 37.0 1.5 2.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.9 4.9 58.2 42.1 37.0 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 4.5 2.2 4.2 49.9 38.0 34.3 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.6 3.6 4.7 53.9 39.3 35.2 2.9 5.0 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.3 2.6 3.9 49.0 36.7 32.7 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.5 4.2 55.8 41.3 36.1 1.8 3.3 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.3 2.9 4.4 55.8 41.8 37.8 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.3 3.8 4.8 50.8 37.3 32.2 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.2 2.8 32.1 26.5 24.8 1.6 3.2 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.4 3.7 48.3 36.5 32.6 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.0 4.9 67.4 51.3 40.0 1.5 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.5 5.0 53.4 38.4 34.0 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.3 4.1 52.4 41.8 34.4 1.5 3.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.4 6.8 64.3 45.6 39.5 2.8 5.0 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.6 3.6 44.1 35.3 30.7 2.3 4.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.9 5.7 71.6 51.9 40.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.0 4.0 47.9 38.6 32.4 1.5 3.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.3 4.3 47.6 35.3 31.2 3.0 5.0 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 1.2 1.0 3.0 34.7 27.3 23.7 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.2 4.5 53.7 42.5 38.1 1.6 2.8 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.4 1.7 3.5 43.7 35.0 29.5 1.6 3.3 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.6 1.4 2.9 34.4 26.4 24.5 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.4 5.6 57.1 41.3 36.0 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.1 1.7 3.8 51.4 41.5 34.4 1.1 2.5 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------