***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.01.2015.-01.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.0 9.7 12.9 121.8 69.9 59.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 7.5 11.4 117.6 68.4 55.7 2.1 4.1 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 13.2 13.4 123.8 70.6 58.3 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.2 14.4 117.8 68.4 57.7 4.5 7.9 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.8 15.6 15.2 124.2 70.7 59.2 4.6 8.5 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.9 12.9 14.7 116.0 67.8 59.0 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.2 11.3 119.6 69.1 56.9 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.4 20.7 16.6 126.2 71.4 59.8 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.0 12.4 15.9 127.8 72.0 60.2 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.4 17.2 130.3 72.8 60.6 4.4 7.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.0 13.2 14.8 126.7 71.6 59.4 4.2 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.8 14.2 123.4 70.5 59.7 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.8 14.4 14.3 121.3 69.7 60.7 3.6 7.4 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.5 16.0 16.6 122.0 70.0 59.5 5.0 8.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.3 13.5 110.4 66.5 56.2 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.0 13.1 14.1 123.5 70.5 59.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.7 10.7 113.5 67.1 55.0 2.4 4.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.5 14.4 18.8 130.7 73.0 61.2 4.8 7.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.3 11.9 116.9 68.2 55.8 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.9 20.9 126.8 71.7 60.3 3.9 7.0 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.6 13.2 14.8 126.9 71.7 60.1 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.2 8.4 11.5 114.7 67.7 55.2 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.6 13.1 117.2 68.3 56.9 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 15.6 16.6 126.6 71.6 60.1 4.9 8.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.9 14.9 122.8 70.2 59.7 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.9 11.8 13.9 114.7 67.7 59.8 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.8 14.0 122.9 70.3 59.8 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.4 13.9 115.6 67.9 57.1 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 19.8 19.6 127.7 71.9 60.6 6.1 10.7 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.1 8.3 11.8 119.7 69.1 56.5 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------