***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 6.0 9.3 113.5 68.0 57.4 1.7 3.3 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.3 7.7 92.3 60.8 49.9 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.5 5.6 8.9 104.8 64.5 53.8 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.7 11.1 107.4 65.7 51.6 3.2 6.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.1 9.1 11.5 112.5 67.1 54.2 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.5 11.6 108.5 65.5 54.4 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.7 8.0 96.2 62.2 51.2 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.8 12.5 106.7 65.1 52.7 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.5 6.0 11.7 114.1 67.5 55.8 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.3 12.5 109.8 65.9 54.8 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.1 7.8 11.3 112.8 67.2 53.2 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.2 11.3 111.1 66.8 52.8 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.6 11.8 113.8 67.5 55.3 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.8 10.4 98.6 61.0 52.0 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.9 6.8 10.2 98.8 63.0 46.2 1.8 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.8 11.3 114.2 67.7 53.1 2.4 4.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.9 7.3 88.2 59.1 47.3 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.9 13.0 104.1 63.3 54.0 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.7 7.6 91.0 59.8 49.2 1.6 3.4 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.6 14.7 96.1 61.3 51.5 2.4 4.6 7.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.6 6.1 10.5 113.5 67.5 56.0 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.8 7.5 85.8 58.3 47.0 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.5 8.0 93.2 59.3 49.3 1.3 3.1 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.8 10.9 103.3 62.9 53.4 2.7 5.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.0 7.1 11.6 118.4 69.3 57.8 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.0 11.2 107.7 65.8 53.1 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.8 8.1 10.7 117.7 69.2 58.6 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.8 10.6 104.0 64.4 48.3 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.2 13.4 98.7 61.3 52.3 4.3 7.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.5 4.0 8.1 97.9 62.7 52.0 1.3 2.6 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------