***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 14.5 25.9 37.7 101.4 58.3 53.5 15.0 21.9 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.8 34.8 98.1 56.4 51.5 14.5 21.0 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 18.5 32.4 38.1 100.8 57.5 52.1 19.0 27.9 38.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 21.8 36.6 42.3 98.2 55.3 50.6 21.5 32.6 45.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 22.3 37.2 43.4 102.5 58.2 52.1 22.8 32.0 42.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 30.9 31.9 43.9 104.4 59.9 54.9 17.2 25.7 36.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 22.7 23.9 34.8 100.9 58.4 53.6 14.6 20.4 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 53.0 58.3 49.6 109.5 63.8 55.6 31.6 44.9 60.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 28.5 30.5 46.2 107.9 62.6 55.3 17.4 24.4 32.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 34.8 38.3 50.1 109.9 64.0 55.9 21.4 29.8 39.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 18.3 33.8 43.1 107.2 62.0 54.2 18.5 26.8 36.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 16.1 32.0 42.7 107.7 62.5 54.7 15.6 24.2 34.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 32.8 34.6 43.4 106.4 61.5 55.2 18.2 27.3 38.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 44.3 44.0 46.5 100.9 57.4 52.4 28.1 38.7 50.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.9 27.6 40.5 93.2 52.9 48.4 15.3 25.5 38.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.8 30.1 41.5 105.3 60.7 53.6 15.8 23.9 33.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.0 34.3 99.3 57.6 52.4 14.8 21.0 28.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 32.8 36.1 53.7 108.0 62.6 55.1 18.3 27.5 38.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.5 26.9 35.3 96.5 55.0 50.2 17.5 24.6 32.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 33.9 37.7 64.0 109.0 63.4 55.7 19.9 28.9 39.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 19.8 32.3 42.1 104.9 60.4 54.0 20.4 27.4 35.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 25.9 26.3 36.3 98.5 56.9 51.9 15.8 22.9 31.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 16.0 25.5 37.3 96.5 54.4 50.0 15.7 23.4 32.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 39.9 40.6 46.5 103.8 59.5 53.2 25.5 34.8 45.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.1 33.9 43.4 102.0 58.2 53.5 21.2 29.5 38.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.6 27.2 43.1 103.7 59.9 54.1 14.2 21.9 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 30.0 31.1 41.8 104.1 60.1 55.4 18.1 25.8 34.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.7 24.4 40.7 96.4 54.4 49.5 13.4 21.9 32.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 50.8 54.7 57.3 106.7 61.7 54.7 28.7 42.7 59.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.9 35.4 99.1 56.8 52.0 14.5 20.9 28.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------