***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 -0.1 -0.7 1.6 74.4 70.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1 1.4 71.9 69.1 -4.6 -3.2 -2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.8 -1.1 1.5 73.9 70.1 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 -4.9 -4.6 -3.9 1.5 71.9 67.7 -7.6 -6.3 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 -2.0 -1.5 -3.1 1.6 75.1 70.1 -4.4 -3.2 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -2.9 -2.4 -4.4 1.7 76.7 72.0 -5.3 -4.2 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0 1.5 72.7 69.6 -4.5 -3.1 -1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -6.5 -6.1 -3.8 1.8 76.9 72.6 -9.0 -7.9 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 -1.0 -0.7 -2.4 1.5 74.1 69.6 -3.5 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 -1.6 -1.2 -3.3 1.8 75.9 71.4 -4.0 -2.9 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 -1.7 -1.3 -3.2 1.7 75.9 71.4 -4.4 -3.2 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 -2.4 -2.0 -3.2 1.8 77.3 73.1 -5.0 -3.9 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 -2.0 -1.5 -3.4 1.8 78.0 73.5 -4.6 -3.5 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.7 -2.4 1.4 72.1 69.2 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 -1.5 -1.6 -3.6 1.3 68.9 65.8 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 -1.1 -0.8 -3.6 1.7 75.5 71.3 -3.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 -1.7 -1.8 -1.2 1.3 70.0 67.5 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 -3.6 -3.2 -3.9 1.7 75.3 71.2 -5.9 -4.9 -3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 1.4 71.6 69.0 -4.3 -3.0 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -6.4 -5.9 -5.0 1.8 76.7 72.2 -9.4 -8.1 -6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 -1.3 -1.0 -1.5 1.5 74.1 69.7 -3.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -1.8 -1.9 -1.2 1.2 69.2 67.1 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 1.3 71.3 69.0 -4.1 -3.0 -1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 -1.8 -1.6 -2.5 1.5 73.7 70.1 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.5 1.5 73.9 69.8 -4.0 -2.9 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 -2.0 -1.4 -3.1 1.8 79.3 74.9 -4.4 -3.4 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -0.8 -1.5 1.6 74.5 70.7 -4.1 -2.8 -1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 -2.7 -2.6 -3.7 1.5 71.2 67.3 -5.2 -4.0 -3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 -3.7 -3.4 -4.3 1.8 75.8 71.6 -6.3 -5.2 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 1.5 73.1 69.9 -4.2 -2.9 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------