***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 2.5 4.5 0.7 58.4 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.9 4.2 0.6 56.5 55.7 1.5 3.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.2 5.1 4.5 0.5 56.3 54.9 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.3 0.5 2.2 0.7 59.0 56.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.4 3.0 0.8 59.4 56.4 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.4 2.7 1.3 64.7 61.5 2.1 3.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.8 3.6 4.1 0.6 57.5 56.4 1.1 2.8 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -0.2 2.7 0.8 60.7 58.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.9 3.7 0.7 58.0 55.4 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 3.1 0.6 57.6 55.6 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.8 3.1 0.9 61.7 58.2 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.8 6.3 3.3 1.2 65.5 61.8 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.4 3.3 1.5 68.0 63.9 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.0 3.7 0.1 51.1 51.3 2.7 4.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.8 4.4 2.3 0.7 58.8 56.5 1.2 3.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.3 6.6 3.0 1.1 63.8 60.1 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.2 3.9 0.4 55.1 54.9 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.3 2.8 0.3 54.1 53.3 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.2 4.3 0.5 55.6 55.0 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.5 56.4 55.4 -0.2 1.8 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 4.1 0.6 57.7 55.3 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.8 3.9 0.2 52.8 53.3 1.7 3.5 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.8 4.3 0.4 54.1 53.7 1.6 3.4 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.1 3.7 0.3 53.1 52.5 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.1 3.0 0.7 58.6 56.0 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 6.2 6.3 3.4 1.7 71.6 67.6 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.9 3.8 0.7 58.8 56.5 2.1 4.0 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.4 5.5 2.4 0.8 59.5 56.7 1.8 4.2 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.5 2.1 0.4 54.5 53.7 -0.1 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.8 4.3 0.6 57.1 56.0 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------