***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 1.6 4.0 -0.1 48.6 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.9 4.0 0.0 50.0 51.0 1.9 3.9 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.7 4.3 -0.1 48.5 49.6 2.8 4.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.0 -1.2 1.7 -0.4 46.0 47.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.3 2.5 -0.3 46.4 47.9 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.5 1.7 -0.4 45.3 47.2 2.2 4.0 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.5 3.9 0.0 50.2 51.1 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -2.1 2.0 -0.5 44.5 46.5 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.9 3.3 -0.3 46.2 47.6 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.5 2.6 -0.4 45.2 46.9 3.1 5.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.8 2.5 -0.3 47.0 48.3 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.6 2.3 -0.4 45.6 47.4 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.4 2.0 -0.4 45.5 47.2 3.0 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.3 3.8 -0.3 46.9 48.3 3.4 5.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.1 1.8 -0.4 45.6 47.9 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.9 2.1 -0.3 46.7 48.2 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.7 3.8 0.0 50.3 51.3 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.3 2.5 -0.5 44.8 46.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.0 4.2 0.0 49.7 50.7 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.2 0.9 0.7 -0.6 42.8 45.2 -0.1 1.6 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.8 3.7 -0.3 47.2 48.4 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.4 4.0 0.0 49.6 50.7 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.3 4.3 -0.1 49.0 50.1 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.0 3.6 -0.3 46.7 48.1 3.3 5.4 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.4 2.5 -0.3 46.5 48.0 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 3.9 1.8 -0.5 44.0 46.1 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.8 3.3 -0.2 47.7 48.9 2.0 4.1 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.9 1.9 -0.3 46.2 48.2 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 0.9 1.8 -0.5 44.5 46.5 -0.4 1.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.7 4.1 0.0 49.6 50.7 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------