***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 7.2 5.9 1.3 62.9 61.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 8.5 7.7 5.9 1.3 62.7 61.4 3.6 6.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 9.7 8.8 6.2 1.3 62.5 60.9 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.2 2.2 3.6 1.1 61.3 59.9 -1.3 0.8 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.2 4.4 1.2 61.9 60.2 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.4 3.5 1.4 64.1 62.0 3.8 5.8 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.2 5.8 1.3 62.8 61.5 3.1 5.4 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.9 0.3 3.8 1.2 62.2 60.5 -2.5 -0.9 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.0 5.2 1.3 62.0 60.3 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 9.5 8.6 4.5 1.2 62.2 60.4 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 9.4 8.6 4.3 1.3 62.9 60.9 4.7 7.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 9.1 8.5 4.2 1.2 62.9 61.0 4.9 6.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 9.1 8.5 3.8 1.3 63.8 61.6 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 10.4 9.6 5.8 1.3 62.4 60.7 5.4 7.8 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 8.5 7.6 3.7 1.0 61.4 60.0 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 9.4 8.8 4.0 1.3 63.2 61.1 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.1 5.7 1.3 62.2 60.9 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.7 4.4 1.3 62.2 60.5 4.3 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.0 6.1 1.3 62.6 61.2 3.6 6.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.3 2.4 1.1 61.5 59.7 1.2 3.1 4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 9.5 8.6 5.6 1.3 62.1 60.5 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 8.8 8.0 6.0 1.2 61.9 60.7 4.0 6.4 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 9.2 8.3 6.3 1.3 62.5 61.0 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 10.2 9.4 5.6 1.3 62.4 60.7 5.3 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.1 4.3 1.1 62.0 60.6 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.9 3.6 1.3 64.5 62.1 4.4 6.3 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 8.8 7.9 5.1 1.3 62.8 61.1 3.9 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.8 3.8 1.1 61.6 60.0 4.8 7.2 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 5.6 4.9 3.6 1.2 62.2 60.4 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 8.4 7.5 6.0 1.3 62.8 61.4 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------