***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 5.2 5.3 1.2 69.3 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.5 5.1 1.2 67.5 64.1 2.6 4.0 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.8 5.5 1.2 68.4 64.2 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.4 1.0 2.7 0.9 65.1 61.2 -1.5 -0.2 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.6 3.8 1.2 69.7 64.5 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 5.8 6.2 3.3 1.4 73.8 69.6 3.2 4.4 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.2 5.0 1.2 68.2 64.4 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 0.2 0.3 3.4 1.2 70.0 66.3 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.4 4.7 1.3 69.8 64.8 4.2 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 6.6 6.7 4.1 1.2 69.4 65.2 3.7 5.1 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.8 7.1 3.9 1.3 72.1 66.8 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.2 3.9 1.3 73.1 68.5 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.6 7.2 3.9 1.5 75.8 70.9 3.7 5.1 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.3 5.1 1.1 66.3 62.8 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.6 2.9 0.8 63.5 60.3 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 7.0 7.5 3.7 1.4 73.3 67.9 4.2 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.1 4.9 4.7 1.0 65.7 62.7 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.2 5.0 3.9 1.1 67.2 64.0 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.8 5.3 1.2 67.2 63.8 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 3.2 3.1 2.2 0.9 66.3 64.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.0 5.1 1.3 69.7 64.7 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.6 4.9 1.0 64.4 61.9 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.8 5.4 1.1 66.7 63.3 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.3 5.0 1.1 67.3 63.5 4.2 5.8 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.3 3.8 1.1 67.7 63.5 2.8 4.1 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.2 6.6 3.5 1.4 74.8 70.7 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.1 4.6 1.1 68.5 64.4 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.7 3.0 1.0 66.0 61.9 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 3.6 3.6 3.3 1.1 67.6 64.8 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.5 5.2 1.2 68.3 64.6 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------